Debt Sustainability after the Pandemic: a Rift between Advanced and Developing Economies?

The aftermath of the Covid-19 health crisis poses major fiscal challenges to many countries, both advanced and developing. A key issue facing policymakers is the amount of available fiscal space given the recent surge in public debt. Exceptional shocks like the pandemic can push countries beyond their debt sustainability limit, inevitably constraining countries’ fiscal space. Against this backdrop this paper estimates the development of public debt limits and ensuing fiscal space for a panel of G20 economies - developed and developing - since the 1990s. This analysis suggests that advanced and developing economies face entirely different conditions for the conduct of independent fiscal policies to address major shocks, with the former generally much better placed

The Impact of Brexit on the UK Alternative Investment Fund Industry

: Following the 23 June 2016 referendum through which the British people have decided to leave the European Union and the 29 March 2017 notification to the European Council of the UK intention to withdraw from the Union, on 31 May 2017, ESMA published an opinion providing nine principles regarding the supervisory approach to be held by EU Countries’ Authorities in the event of relocations of entities, activities and/or functions from the UK to the other 27 Member States as a consequence of Brexit

Hidden Markov models based on symbolic dynamics for statistical modeling of cardiovascular control in hypertensive pregnancy disorders

Copyright © 2006 IEEEDiscrete hidden Markov models (HMMs) were applied to classify pregnancy disorders. The observation sequence was generated by transforming RR and systolic blood pressure time series using symbolic dynamics. Time series were recorded from 15 women with pregnancy-induced hypertension, 34 with preeclampsia and 41 controls beyond 30th gestational week. HMMs with five to ten hidden states were found to be sufficient to characterize different blood pressure variability, whereas significant classification in RR-based HMMs was found using fifteen hidden states. Pregnancy disorders preeclampsia and pregnancy induced hypertension revealed different patho-physiological autonomous regulation supposing different etiology of both disorders.V. Baier, M. Baumert, P. Caminal, M. Vallverdú, R. Faber, and A. Vos

Detrended fluctuation analysis of heart rate by means of symbolic series

Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) has been shown to be a useful tool for diagnosis of patients with cardiac diseases. The scaling exponents obtained with DFA are an indicator of power-law correlations in signal fluctuation, independently of signal amplitude and external trends. In this work, an approach based on DFA was proposed for analyzing heart rate variability (HRV) by means of RR series. The proposal consisted on transforming consecutive RR increments to symbols, according to an adapted symbolic-quantization. Three scaling exponents were calculated, αHF, αLF and αVLF, which correspond to the well known VLF, LF and HF frequency bands in the power spectral of the HRV. This DFA approach better characterized high and low risk of cardiac mortality in ischemic cardiomyiopathy patients than DFA applied to RR time series or RR increment series.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version